Chelsea currently sit fourth in the Premier League despite the heavy discourse around their current situation, with injury problems beginning to crop up, mistakes being made in the defensive unit to give up easy goals and a lack of goals being scored at the other end.
Enzo Maresca’s side are one of the ten teams in the Premier League who are underperforming their expected goals, generating 48.6 xG so far this season in their first 24 games, but only scoring 46 goals, meaning they are underperforming their xG by 2.6.
If it wasn’t for their star man, who has made 24 Premier League appearances this season, scoring 14 goals and providing six assists, the Blues would be much further away from the top four and have much worse underlying numbers in the xG department.
How Cole Palmer is saving Chelsea again
Cole Palmer was signed for Chelsea in the 2023 summer transfer window, for what now seems a measly fee of £40m plus £2.5m in add-ons.
Since his arrival, the 22-year-old has transcended from a Manchester City academy lad looking for minutes to a Premier League great, winning the PFA Young Player of the Year and England Men’s Player of the Year in 2024.
The England international has undergone a meteoric rise, scoring 39 goals and providing 21 assists in his 72 Chelsea appearances so far, and also establishing himself as a senior international for his country, scoring in the Euro 2024 final in a 2-1 loss against Spain.
Of Chelsea’s 48.6 xG, Cole Palmer has generated 12.3 xG himself in the Premier League this season, scoring 14 goals and overperforming his xG by +1.7. Palmer has also created 8.2 expected assisted goals (xAG), meaning over 20 of Chelsea’s xG performance is from Palmer himself in one way or another.
Nicolas Jackson, on the other hand, has generated 11.4 xG so far in the Premier League this campaign, underperforming his xG by -2.4.
That being said, things could have been very different had Chelsea signed Frank Lampard’s primary striker target in his first reign in charge.
One that got away
The transfers that nearly happened but never did. This article is part of Football FanCast’s One That Got Away series.
When Erling Haaland nearly became a blue
Lampard has made it clear he was “pushing” for Erling Haaland back in his first reign at the club, before the Norway international made his move from RB Salzburg to Borussia Dortmund, who paid his €22.5m (£18.75m) release clause.
“People talk a lot about mistakes or things that could have been in football. Whether he [Haaland] would have come here, I don’t know but I was pushing big and on a few other players at the time but he was the outstanding one. Was it close? He’ll only know the answer to that. What stage did it get to? From our point, I was certainly pushing it.”
Fast-forward to 2025 and it’s rather evident to see why they should have got a move over the line. Indeed, Haaland is valued at a staggering £167m by Transfermarkt, which is even more than the aforementioned Palmer, despite his dazzling displays, with the England international currently valued at £108m.
When comparing Haaland’s underlying metrics to Palmer’s this season – of course, playing in different positions – you can see the xG performance value Haaland brings to his side, generating 0.77 xG per 90 in the Premier League and scoring 0.20 goals per shot; astonishing levels.
|
Erling Haaland vs Cole Palmer comparison |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Stats (per 90 mins) |
Haaland |
Palmer |
|
Goals |
0.81 |
0.60 |
|
Assists |
0.08 |
0.26 |
|
xG |
0.77 |
0.53 |
|
xAG |
0.09 |
0.35 |
|
Progressive Carries |
0.68 |
3.43 |
|
Progressive Passes |
0.64 |
5.97 |
|
Shots Total |
3.81 |
3.52 |
|
Goals/Shot |
0.20 |
0.13 |
|
Key Passes |
0.93 |
2.75 |
|
Shot-Creating Actions |
2.37 |
5.88 |
|
Aerial Duels Won |
1.74 |
0.00 |
|
Stats taken from FBref |
||
Described as a “monster” and a “beast” by former Bayern and Germany striker Mario Gomez, he’s earned rave reviews for his simply sensational levels of performance since moving to City.
He’s breaking countless scoring records, already netting 82 goals in 90 Premier League appearances and if he stays for the duration of his new ten year contract, is highly likely to break Alan Shearer’s tally.
If Lampard had his way, Haaland would be at Chelsea right now, and the partnership of Palmer and the Norwegian would likely be one of the very best in the Premier League, mixing xG creation and clinical finishing, putting teams to bed with one-two combos at ease.
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